Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co (HKSE:01833) Predictability Rank

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What is Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co (HKSE:01833) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co Ltd (HKSE:01833) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PANHF:USA 1XZ:Germany

Address

No. 166, Kaibin Road, Shanghai Ping An Building, 17th-19th Floor, Block B, Shanghai, CHN

Website

https://www.pagd.net

Ping An Healthcare and Technology is the parent of Ping An Good Doctor, or PAGD, an online platform offering healthcare services in the form of a health maintenance organization, or HMO, model that provides commercial healthcare services and offers healthcare checkup, healthcare management, and corporate reimbursement for a fee. The company leverages the network of health providers from its parent Ping An Group, where it enters into contracts with physicians, hospitals, and specialists to offer their services to HMO participants. Other than commercial healthcare premium services, PAGD offers online consultations and prescription e-commerce online to individuals. The platform has 978 corporate clients and 43 million paying users. PAGD is 38.43% owned by its parent company.

Executives

Sounda Properties Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hopson Development Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chu Mang Yee	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hsbc Holdings Plc	2302 Custodian
Morgan Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dou Wenwei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Wenjun	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bang Qi Jian You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Ping An Bao Xian Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
An Ke Ji Shu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
An Xin You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner

Ping An Healthcare And Technology Co (HKSE:01833) Headlines

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