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Giant Biogene Holding Co (HKSE:02367) Predictability Rank


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What is Giant Biogene Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Giant Biogene Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Giant Biogene Holding Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Giant Biogene Holding Co (HKSE:02367) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd (HKSE:02367) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01044 HKSE:00973 HKSE:03331 HKSE:06993 HKSE:02145 HKSE:06601 HKSE:00157 HKSE:01925 HKSE:02023 HKSE:03828 PG XPAR:OR LSE:ULVR BOM:500696 CL LSE:RKT KMB EL KVUE XTER:BEI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1855, Shanglin Yuan 7th Road, Chang’an District, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN
Website
http://www.xajuzi.com
Giant Biogene Holding Co Ltd design, develop and manufacture professional skin treatment products with recombinant collagen as the key bioactive ingredient. The company also develops and manufactures rare ginsenosides technology-based functional foods. The company utilizes proprietary synthetic biology technology to develop and manufacture multiple types of recombinant collagen and rare ginsenosides in-house. Bioactive ingredients offer a wealth of beauty and health properties such as skin repair, anti-aging, whitening, moisturizing and immunity improvement with a broad range of applications in the beauty and health sectors.
Executives
Refulgence Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Juzi Holding Co., Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner
Fan Daidi 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Jianya 2202 Interest of your spouse
Yi Fang Da Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2102 Investment manager
Yan Jianya 2101 Beneficial owner
Fan Daidi
Trident Trust Company (b.v.i.) Limited 2301 Trustee

Giant Biogene Holding Co (HKSE:02367) Headlines

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