Sunshine 100 China Holdings (HKSE:02608) Predictability Rank

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What is Sunshine 100 China Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sunshine 100 China Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sunshine 100 China Holdings (HKSE:02608) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd (HKSE:02608) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 2 Guang Hua Road, 12th Floor, Tower D, Beijing, CHN, 100026

Website

http://www.ss100.com.cn

Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd engages in property and land development, property investment, and property management & hotel operation in China. The group generates revenue through property sales, property management and hotel operation income, and rental income. The property and land development business earns sales from residential and commercial properties and constructs projects in multiple Chinese cities. A majority of the company's revenue is derived from the mixed-use business complexes segment. Nearly all the company's revenue comes from its customers in the People's Republic of China.

Executives

Fantasy Races Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Feng	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Li Mingqiang	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Jin Xiangfei	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Liu Chaohui	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Yi Xiaodi	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Fan Xiaohua	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Fan Xiaochong	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Ming Fai International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Joywise Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Harvest Well Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cititrust Private Trust (cayman) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fantastic Magician Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Great Sharp International Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qian Tiwei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Sunshine 100 China Holdings (HKSE:02608) Headlines

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