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Zhongliang Holdings Group Co (HKSE:02772) Predictability Rank


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What is Zhongliang Holdings Group Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zhongliang Holdings Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Zhongliang Holdings Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zhongliang Holdings Group Co (HKSE:02772) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Zhongliang Holdings Group Co Ltd (HKSE:02772) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00124 HKSE:00230 HKSE:00618 HKSE:00131 HKSE:00989 HKSE:01628 HKSE:00910 HKSE:00846 HKSE:00160 HKSE:01125 HKSE:00016 HKSE:01109 HKSE:00688 HKSE:01113 TSE:1925 SHSE:600048 SZSE:000002 BOM:532868 DFM:EMAAR SZSE:001979
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
235 Yunling East Road, No. 3, Shanghai Convention and Exhibition Centre of International Sourcing, 20th Floor, Putuo District, Shanghai, CHN
Website
https://www.zldcgroup.com
Zhongliang Holdings Group Co Ltd is a real estate developer. It specializes in the development of residential properties and has recently started to develop, operate and manage commercial properties. The Group derives its revenue from three business lines, namely sales of properties; management consulting services; and rental income from property leases. The Sale of properties is the key driver of revenue for the group.
Executives
Yang Jian
Changxing International Co., Ltd
Changxing Pte. Ltd.
Liangzhong International Co., Ltd.
Ubs Group Ag 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xu Xiaoqun 2202 Interest of your spouse
Changxing Pte. Ltd. 2301 Trustee
Liangzhong international co., ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner

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