China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings (HKSE:06168) Predictability Rank

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What is China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings (HKSE:06168) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06168) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Unit B, 28 Yee Wo Street, 12th Floor, Hang Seng Causeway Bay Building, Causeway Bay, HKG

Website

http://www.chinauton.com.hk

China U-Ton Future Space Industrial Group Holdings Ltd is engaged in providing deployment services of optical fibers. The principal activities of the Group are the provision of design, deployment and maintenance of optical fibers services, other communication networks services, environmentally intelligent technical products and services, and moneylending services. It utilizes its proprietary micro-ducts and micro-cables system deployment technology to provide optical fiber network construction and capacity expansion services. The company's generates maximum revenue share from the People's Republic of China (PRC).

Executives

Qian Tiwei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Great Sharp International Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Liu Xuezhong	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Yuelan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Fund Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Hua Rong Zi Chan Guan Li Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fresh Idea Ventures Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Huarong International Financial Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Xing Yun Chuang Ye Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Guo Aru
Jiang Changqing
Bright Warm Limited
Bei Jing Xing Yun Qing Ke Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Xing Ji Cheng Shi Wen Hua Chuan Mei You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Shi Zhong Xiao Qi Ye Fu Wu Zhong Xin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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