Hennessy Advisors (Hennessy Advisors) Predictability Rank

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What is Hennessy Advisors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hennessy Advisors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hennessy Advisors (Hennessy Advisors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Hennessy Advisors Inc (NAS:HNNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7250 Redwood Boulevard, Suite 200, Novato, CA, USA, 94945

Website

https://www.hennessyadvisors.com

Hennessy Advisors Inc is an investment management company, engaged in the managing and marketing of open-end mutual funds branded as the Hennessy Funds. It offers domestic equity, sectors, and specialty, balanced and fixed income products. It provides investment advisory services and shareholder services to the Hennessy Funds. Its investment advisory services include managing the composition of each fund's portfolio, including the purchase, retention, and disposition of portfolio securities in accordance with the Fund's investment objectives, policies, and restrictions; conducting investment research, and monitoring compliance with each fund's investment restrictions and applicable laws and regulations.

Executives

Neil J Hennessy	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	7250 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Kiera Newton	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Knight Oriordan Lydia D	director	7240 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Rodger Offenbach	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Daniel B Steadman	director, officer: Executive Vice President	7250 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Brian A Hennessey	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Teresa M Nilsen	director, officer: EVP, CFO and Secretary	7250 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Thomas L Seavey	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD., SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Kathryn Fahy	officer: SVP and CFO	7250 REDWOOD BOULEVARD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Susan Weber Pomilia	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Daniel G Libarie	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945
Charles W Bennett	director	700 IRWIN STREET, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901-3300
Henry Hansel	director	7250 REDWOOD BLVD, SUITE 200, NOVATO CA 94945