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Hansen Medical (Hansen Medical) Predictability Rank


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What is Hansen Medical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Hansen Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hansen Medical Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hansen Medical (Hansen Medical) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Hansen Medical Inc, formerly known as AutoCath Inc, was incorporated in Delaware in 2002. The Company completed its initial public offering on February 28, 2014. The Company develops, manufactures and sells medical robotics designed for accurate positioning, manipulation and stable control of catheters and catheter-based technologies. Its products include Sensei Robotic Catheter System, Magellan Robotic System, Artisan catheter, Lynx catheter, Magellan Robotic Catheter, and CoHesion 3D Visualization Module. Sensei Robotic Catheter System, or Sensei system, is designed to allow physicians to navigate flexible catheters with solid stability and control in interventional procedures within the atrial heart chambers. This system enables physicians to direct the movements of a robotic catheter like the Company's Artisan Control Catheter and Artisan Extend Control Catheter, or Artisan catheters, and Lynx Robotic Ablation Catheter, or Lynx catheter, to an anatomical location. The Sensei system is comprised of two modules: a physician control console and a patient-side module that can be connected to procedure tables. The control console can be located inside the Electro-Physiology Laboratory, or EP lab, and close to the patient or outside the EP lab in a separate location shielded from radiation. The Company's Magellan Robotic System is a peripheral vascular interventional platform that, used in combination with the Magellan Robotic Catheters, has the potential to provide endovascular specialists with vessel navigation, catheter stability during the manual delivery and placement of therapeutic devices, reduced procedural radiation exposure and fatigue, and precise robotic control of distal catheter tips. Magellan Robotic System is comprised of two modules: a physician control console and a patient-side robotic arm that can be connected to procedure tables. The Artisan catheter is a disposable catheter and guide catheter assembly that consists of a telescoping set of control catheters that are integrated to provide the desired motion of the tip of a diagnostic or therapeutic catheter that is inserted through the center lumen of the Artisan catheter. This is designed to accurately control the movement of a third party catheter chosen by the physician. CoHesion 3D Visualization Module, or CoHesion Module, is a software interface between Sensei system and the St. Jude Medical EnSite System for EP procedures. It is designed to provide physicians with 3D visualization to augment their ability to move a catheter throughout the atria, as well as increase control over placement of the catheter in specific locations. The Company markets, sells and supports its products in the United States through a direct sales force of regional sales employees, supported by clinical account managers who provide training, clinical support and other services to customers. Outside the United States, in the European Union, it uses a combination of a direct sales for
Executives
William R Rohn director PO BOX 676367, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067
Christopher P. Lowe director, officer: Interim CFO 2511 N LOOP 1604,, SUITE 204, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Oracle Institutional Partners L P 10 percent owner 200 GREENWICH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Oracle Partners Lp 10 percent owner 200 GREENWICH AVE, 3RD FL, GREENWICH CT 06830
Larry N Feinberg 10 percent owner C/O ORACLE PARTNERS L P, 200 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Oracle Associates Llc 10 percent owner 200 GREENWICH AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Stephen L Newman director 13737 NOEL ROAD, SUITE 100, DALLAS TX 75093
Oracle Ten Fund Master, Lp 10 percent owner C/O ORACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC., 200 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jack W. Schuler Living Trust other: Former 10% Owner 100 NORTH FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Family Foundation Schuler other: Former 10% Owner 100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Marjorie L. Bowen director 225 6TH STREET, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Jack W Schuler director, 10 percent owner 100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Peter J Mariani officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GUIDANT CORP, 111 MONUMENT CIRCLE #2900, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204-5129
Bruce Barclay director
Russell C Hirsch director 435 TASSO STREET, SUITE 200, PALO ALTO CA 94301