Heartland Financial USA (Heartland Financial USA) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is Heartland Financial USA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Heartland Financial USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Heartland Financial USA Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Heartland Financial USA's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Heartland Financial USA (Heartland Financial USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Heartland Financial USA Inc (NAS:HTLF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HTLFP.PFD:USA 1H4:Germany

Address

1800 Larimer Street, Suite 1800, Denver, CO, USA, 80202

Website

https://www.htlf.com

Heartland Financial USA Inc is a multi-bank holding company that offers a wide range of commercial, small business, and consumer banking services to businesses, including public sector and non-profit entities, and individuals. It also provides traditional and non-traditional service channels including online banking, mobile/remote banking, and telephone banking. The company's business lines are Commercial Banking, Agricultural Loans, Small Business Banking, Residential Real Estate Mortgage Lending, Consumer Banking, and Wealth Management and Retirement Plan Services.

Executives

Kevin C Karrels	officer: EVP, Head of Consumer, Retail	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Robert S Kahn	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy Officer	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Bruce K Lee	director, officer: PRESIDENT	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Deborah K Deters	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Margaret Lazo	director	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Opal Perry	director	HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC., ESTERO FL 33928
Robert B Engel	director	C/O ALLIED MOTION TECHNOLOGIES INC., 495 COMMERCE DRIVE, AMHERST NY 14228
Martin J Schmitz	director	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Kevin G Quinn	officer: EVP Chief Banking Officer	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Mark E Frank	officer: SVP, Regional Operations	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Kathryn G Unger	director	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Christopher Hylen	director	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Lynn B Fuller	director, officer: President & CEO	700 LOCUST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, DUBUQUE IA 52001
Jay Kim	officer: EVP & General Counsel	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202
Nathan R Jones	officer: EVP, Chief Credit Officer	1800 LARIMER ST., SUITE 1800, DENVER CO 80202