What is Hydrofarm Holdings Group Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hydrofarm Holdings Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Hydrofarm Holdings Group (Hydrofarm Holdings Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1510 Main Street, Shoemakersville, PA, USA, 19526
Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc is a distributor and manufacturer of agriculture equipment and supplies. Some of its products include lighting solutions, growing media (i.e., premium soils and soil alternatives), nutrients, equipment, and supplies sold under proprietary, exclusive/preferred brands, or non-exclusive/distributed brands. The business is organized into two operating segments, the U.S. and Canada.
Executives
| William Douglas Toler |
director, officer: CEO and Chairman of the Board |
1 EAST ARMOUR BOULEVARD, KANSAS CITY MO 64111 |
| Kevin Patrick O'brien |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O CPI CARD GROUP INC., 10026 W. SAN JUAN WAY, SUITE 200, LITTLETON CO 80127 |
| Terence Fitch |
officer: President |
32 ORLE CIR, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223 |
| Mark S Parker |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O HYDROFARM HOLDINGS GROUP, INC., 1510 MAIN STREET, SHOEMAKERSVILLE PA 19526 |
| Patrick Chung |
director |
13 CARNATION RD, THORNHILL A6 L3T 7V3 |
| Joseph D Rumley |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1141 CUMMINGS ROAD, SANTA PAULA CA 93060 |
| Renah Persofsky |
director |
55 PRINCE ARTHUR AVENUE, #604, TORONTO A6 M5R 1B3 |
| Susan Peters |
director |
40 OLD MILITARY ROAD, HILTON HEAD SC 29928 |
| Richard D Moss |
director |
1715 WEST 38TH STREET, CHATTANOOGA TN 37409 |
| Bruce John Lindeman |
officer: CFO |
1500 PATHFINDER AVENUE, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91362 |
| Melisa Denis |
director |
627 WESTHAVEN RD., COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Chris Payne |
10 percent owner |
C/O HAWTHORN EQUITY PARTNERS INC., PO BOX 1061, TORONTO DOMINION A6 M5K 1P2 |
| John Tomes |
10 percent owner |
C/O HAWTHORN EQUITY PARTNERS INC., PO BOX 1061, TORONTO DOMINION A6 M5K 1P2 |
| Peter Wardenburg |
10 percent owner |
3 BEYER CT., NOVATO CA 94945 |
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