Intelgenx Technologies (Intelgenx Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Intelgenx Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intelgenx Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Intelgenx Technologies (Intelgenx Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Intelgenx Technologies Corp (OTCPK:IGXT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IL:Germany IGX:Canada

Address

6420 Abrams, Ville Saint Laurent, QC, CAN, H4S 1Y2

Website

https://www.intelgenx.com

Intelgenx Technologies Corp is an oral drug delivery company. The company is focused on the development and manufacturing of pharmaceutical oral films based on its proprietary VersaFilmTM technology platform. Intelegenx focuses on the development of novel oral immediate-release and controlled-release products for the pharmaceutical market. It offers a comprehensive portfolio of pharmaceutical services, including pharmaceutical R&D, clinical monitoring, regulatory support, tech transfer and manufacturing scale-up, and commercial manufacturing. Its geographical segments are Europe, Canada, and United States.

Executives

Atai Life Sciences Ag	10 percent owner	KRAUSENSTRASSE 9-10, BERLIN 2M 10117
Atai Life Sciences N.v.	10 percent owner	524 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10013
Karen Kalayajian	officer: VP, Finance&Admin - Subsidiary	4896 RUE EDOUARD-BRUNETTE, LAVAL A8 H7T 0J4
Dwight Gorham	officer: CEO	15B BARKLEY ST, ARNPRIOR A6 K7S 3G8
David Kideckel	officer: SVP, Corp. Dev&SA - Subsidiary	23 PEVERIL HILL SOUTH, TORONTO, ON A6 M6C 3A7
Horst G Zerbe	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	714 MAIN ROAD, HUDSON A8 JOP1H0
Andre Godin	officer: CFO	440 DES CARMANTINES, LAVAL A8 H7X 0B6
Tommy Kenny	officer: VP IP,Lgl Affairs - Subsidiary	88 CH. DES SAULES, ST-ADOLPHE D' HOWARD A8 J0T 2B0
Dana Matzen	officer: VP Business+Corp. Development	4771 RUE SHERBROOKE O., WESTMOUNT A8 H3Z1G5
Ingrid Zerbe	10 percent owner, officer: Corporate Secretary	714 MAIN ROAD, HUDSON A8 J0P1H0
Rodolphe Obeid	officer: Vice President, Operations	4779 RUE VILLERET, PIERREFOND A8 H9K1P6
Bernard Boudreau	director	2 TURNMILL DR., HALIFAX A5 B3M4H2
John Edward Durham	officer: Vice President Manufacturing	102 MAYFAIR, HUDSON A8 J0P1H0
Mark Nawacki	director	118 ARLINGTON AVENUE, WESTMOUNT A8 H3Y2W4
Robert J. Bechard	officer: VP Corporate Development	141 EASTON AVENUE, MONTREAL WEST A8 H4X 1L4