InnSuites Hospitality Trust (InnSuites Hospitality Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is InnSuites Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

InnSuites Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

InnSuites Hospitality Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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InnSuites Hospitality Trust (InnSuites Hospitality Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » InnSuites Hospitality Trust (AMEX:IHT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1730 E. Northern Avenue, Suite 122, InnSuites Hotels Centre, Phoenix, AZ, USA, 85020

Website

https://www.innsuitestrust.com

InnSuites Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust. It is engaged in the ownership and operation of hotel properties. It owns and operates hotels, provides management services for hotels, and also provides trademark license services. The Trust is also involved in various operations incidental to the operation of hotels, such as the operation of restaurants, meeting/banquet room rentals, and the operation of a reservation system. It has one reportable segment Hotel Operations & Hotel Management Services. Geographically operates through the region of the United States.

Executives

Jr Chase	director	10202 NORTH 15TH AVENUE, APT #2, PHOENIX AZ 85021
James F Wirth	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, other: Chairman and CEO	1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Pamela J Barnhill	officer: President and COO	C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, 1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Cynthia Ketcherside	director	C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, 1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE #105, PHEONIX AZ 85020
Adam B Remis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, 1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Leslie T Kutasi	director	C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, 1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Robert R. Mazakis	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O INNSUITES HOTELS CENTRE, 1625 E. NORTHERN AVENUE, SUITE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020-3960
Steven S Robson	director	1615 EAST NORTHERN AVE, SUITE 102, C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Larry Pelegrin	director	5143 E. SIERRA SUNSET TRAIL, CAVE CREEK AZ 85331
Peter A Thoma	director	1615 EAST NORTHERN AVE, SUITE 102, C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Mason Anderson	director	3024 WEST SAHUARO DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85029
Marc E Berg	director, officer: Executive Vice President, other: Secretary and Treasurer	1615 EAST NORTHERN AVE, SUITE 102, C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Stephen A Mcconnell	director	6700 EAST SOLANO DRIVE, PARADISE VALLEY AZ 85253
Gail J Wirth	10 percent owner	1615 E NORTHERN AVE, STE 105, PHOENIX AZ 85020
Anthony B Waters	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1615 EAST NORTHERN AVE, SUITE 102, C/O INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST, PHOENIX AZ 85020