What is Intelligent Bio Solutions Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Intelligent Bio Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Intelligent Bio Solutions (Intelligent Bio Solutions) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
57th Street, 142 West, 11th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Intelligent Bio Solutions Inc is a life sciences company developing non-invasive, real-time monitoring and diagnostic tests for patients and their primary health practitioners. Its Biosensor Platform is developing and launching diagnostic tests urgently needed to help people living with chronic diseases. It also engages in the advancement of portable drug abuse testing through the analysis of fingerprint sweat. The test is non-invasive, hygienic, and fast, and screens for recent use of opioids, cocaine, methamphetamines, benzodiazepines, and marijuana.
Executives
| Harry Simeonidis |
director, officer: CEO, President |
708 THIRD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Foundation Ma-ran |
10 percent owner |
1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329 |
| Gary W. Rollins Foundation |
10 percent owner |
1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329 |
| David A Jenkins |
director |
P.O. BOX 682838, PARK CITY UT 84068 |
| Jason Isenberg |
director |
1908 CLIFF VALLEY WAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30329 |
| Spiro Kevin Sakiris |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
708 THIRD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Life Science Biosensor Diagnostics Pty Ltd |
10 percent owner |
LEVEL 9, 85 CASTLEREAGH STREET, SYDNEY C3 2000 |
| Tom Parmakellis |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Victoria Gavrilenko |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE,, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Christopher Towers |
director |
1981 MARCUS AVENUE, SUITE 130, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042 |
| Lawrence B Fisher |
director |
C/0 FINANCIAL FEDERAL CORP, 733 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Leonard Victor Kempler |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE,, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| George Margelis |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Boyages Steven Constantine |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE,, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
| Jonathan Scott Hurd |
director |
708 THIRD AVENUE,, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017 |
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