Summit Hotel Properties (Summit Hotel Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Summit Hotel Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Summit Hotel Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Summit Hotel Properties (Summit Hotel Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Summit Hotel Properties Inc (NYSE:INN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

INNpE.PFD:USA

Address

13215 Bee Cave Parkway, Suite B-300, Austin, TX, USA, 78738

Website

https://www.shpreit.com

Summit Hotel Properties Inc is a U.S.-based hotel investment company focusing on select-service hotels in the upscale and upper-midscale properties in the U.S. Substantially all of Summit's assets are held and operated by its Operating Partnership, Summit Hotel OP, LP, in which the company holds general and limited partnership interests. The firm has one segment in activities related to investing in real estate. Summit's revenue streams include Room and Other hotel operations revenue. Room comprises the majority of total revenues. The firm's hotels are located in various markets, such as corporate offices, retail centers, airports, state capitols, convention centers, and leisure attractions. Summit's hotels operate under brands, including Marriott, Hilton, Hyatt, and Holiday Inn.

Executives

Hope S Taitz	director	C/O ATHENE HOLDING LTD., WASHINGTON HOUSE, 16 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Jonathan P Stanner	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	12600 HILL COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE R-100, AUSTIN TX 78738
Mehulkumar Bhikhubhai Patel	director	2117 KIMBALL HILL CT, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Newcrestimage Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	1785 STATE HIGHWAY 26, SUITE 400, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Bright Force Investment, Llc	10 percent owner	/C/O NEWCRESTIMAGE HOLDINGS, LLC, 1785 STATE HIGHWAY 26, SUITE 400, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Daniel P Hansen	director, officer: President and CEO	4808 FLORENCE ST, BELLAIRE TX 77401
Craig J Aniszewski	officer: EVP and COO	119 STORMY POINTE LN, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William Higgins Conkling	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	13215 BEE CAVE PARKWAY, SUITE B-300, AUSTIN TX 78738
Amina Belouizdad	director	13215 BEE CAVE PARKWAY, SUITE B-300, AUSTIN TX 78783
Paul Ruiz	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	3200 WILCREST DRIVE SUITE 370, HOUSTON TX 77042
Jeffrey W Jones	director	P O BOX 7, VAIL CO 81658
Kenneth J Kay	director	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Greg A Dowell	officer: Executive VP & CFO	805 LAS CIMAS PARKWAY, SUITE 400, AUSTIN TX 78746
Thomas W. Storey	director	2701 S. MINNESOTA AVENUE, SUITE 6, SIOUX FALLS SD 57105
Wayne Wielgus	director	10750 COLUMBIA PIKE, SILVER SPRING MD 20901