What is Instructure Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Instructure Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Instructure Holdings (Instructure Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6330 South 3000 East, Suite 700, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84121
Instructure Holdings Inc is an education technology company dedicated towards helping everyone learn together. it amplify the power of teaching and elevate the learning process, leading to improved student outcomes. The company supports more than 30 million educators and learners at more than 6,000 organizations around the world.
Executives
| Matthew Kaminer |
officer: See remarks |
1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 300, SAN MATEO CA 94403 |
| Benson Michael Lee Jr. |
officer: Chief Product Officer |
6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
| Erik Akopiantz |
director |
600 MONTGOMERY STREET, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| John Charles Goodman |
director |
600 MONTGOMERY STREET, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Stephen M. Daly |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
| Chris F Ball |
officer: See Remarks |
6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
| Melissa J. Loble |
officer: See Remarks |
6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
| Lloyd G Waterhouse |
director |
|
| Thoma Bravo Fund Xiii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
150 N. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 2800, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Thoma Bravo Executive Fund Xiii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
150 N. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 2800, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Thoma Bravo Fund Xiii-a, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
150 N. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 2800, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Ossa Fisher |
director |
1 FANATICAL PLACE, CITY OF WINDCREST, SAN ANTONIO TX 78218 |
| James R. Hutter |
director |
600 MONTGOMERY STREET, 20TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111 |
| Dale E. Bowen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
6330 SOUTH 3000 EAST, SUITE 700, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121 |
| Frank Daniel Maylett |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
7730 S. UNION PARK AVE, SUITE 500, MIDVALE UT 84047 |
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