InSite Vision (InSite Vision) Predictability Rank

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What is InSite Vision Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

InSite Vision Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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InSite Vision (InSite Vision) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » InSite Vision Inc (OTCPK:INSV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.insitevision.com

InSite Vision Inc was incorporated in 1986 as a California Corporation and reincorporated in Delaware in 1987. The Company is an ophthalmic product development company committed to advancing ophthalmic pharmaceutical products to address unmet eye care needs. The Company completed its initial public offering on October 18, 1993. The Company's current portfolio of ophthalmic pharmaceutical products is based on its proprietary DuraSite drug delivery technology. The Company's DuraSite sustained drug delivery technology is a proven, patented synthetic polymer-based formulation designed to extend the residence time of a drug relative to conventional topical therapies. It enables topical delivery of a solution, gel or suspension and could be customized for delivering a variety of potential drug candidates. The Company has focused its research, development and commercial support efforts on the following topical products formulated with its DuraSite drug delivery technology. AzaSite or azithromycin ophthalmic solution 1% is a DuraSite formulation of azithromycin developed as a broad spectrum ocular antibiotic and approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in April 2007 to treat bacterial conjunctivitis. Additional indications are being pursued by Inspire Pharmaceuticals for this product. AzaSite was commercially launched in the United States by Inspire Pharmaceuticals in August 2007. DexaSite is a DuraSite formulation of dexamethasone in development for the treatment of ocular inflammation. In November 2011, it initiated a Phase 3 clinical trial for this product candidate in blepharitis and completed patient enrollment in the clinical trial in September 2012. BromSite is a DuraSite formulation of bromfenac in development for the prevention of post-operative inflammation and eye pain. It initiated a Phase 1/2 clinical trial for this product candidate in August 2010 and received positive top-line results from this study in the first quarter of 2011, which demonstrated the efficacy and safety of BromSite. DuraSite 2 is a next-generation enhanced drug delivery system, which is designed to provide a broad platform for developing superior ophthalmic therapeutics. DuraSite 2 is based on the original DuraSite technology, and incorporates a cationic polymer to achieve sustained and enhanced ocular delivery of drugs. ISV-101 is a DuraSite formulation with a low concentration of bromfenac for the treatment of dry eye disease. The Company is subject to regulation by numerous governmental authorities in the United States and other countries.

Executives

Louis Drapeau	officer: Vice President and CFO	C/O BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 371 BEL MARIN KEYS BLVD., SUITE 210, NOVATO CA 94949
Brian Levy	director
Anthony J Yost	director	C/O INSITE VISION, INC., 965 ATLANTIC AVENUE, ALAMEDA CA 94501
Timothy Mcinerney	director
Craig A Tooman	director
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Timothy P Lynch	director	919 NW BOND STREET, SUITE 204, BEND OR 97703
Rick D Anderson	director	3600 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE B180, AUSTIN TX 78746
Jon S Saxe	director	FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP, 660 HEMBREE PKWY STE 106, ROSWELL GA 30076
Francis Wen-hou Chen	director	1821 JONES STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94109
Pinto Tv Gp Co Llc	10 percent owner	3600 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE B180, AUSTIN TX 78746
Matthew S Crawford	10 percent owner	3600 N CAPITAL OF TEXAS HWY, SUITE B180, AUSTIN TX 78746
Pfizer Inc	10 percent owner	66 HUDSON BOULEVARD EAST, NEW YORK NY 10001-2192

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