Infinity Property and Casualty (Infinity Property and Casualty) Predictability Rank

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What is Infinity Property and Casualty Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Infinity Property and Casualty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Infinity Property and Casualty Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Infinity Property and Casualty (Infinity Property and Casualty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Infinity Property and Casualty Corp (NAS:IPCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.infinityauto.com

Infinity Property and Casualty Corp is a provider of personal auto insurance. The company offers personal and commercial automobile insurance, primarily in Arizona, California, Florida, and Texas, to urban and Hispanic drivers. Infinity Property and Casualty distributes its products through a network of independent agencies and brokers or via the Internet. Nearly half of all premiums are underwritten for customers in California.

Executives

Robert H. Bateman	officer: Executive VP, CFO & Treasurer	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Teresa Alvarez Canida	director	200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Victor T Adamo	director
E Robert Meaney	director
Angela Brock-kyle	director	3700 COLONNADE PARKWAY, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Harold E Layman	director	C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD., 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
William Stancil Starnes	director	P O BOX 598512, BIRMINGHAM AL 35259-8512
Drayton Jr Nabers	director	605 RICHARD ARRINGTON JR BLVD N, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203-2707
Gregory G Joseph	director	301 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
American Financial Group Inc	10 percent owner	GREAT AMERICAN INSURANCE GROUP TOWER, 301 E. 4TH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Carl H Lindner	10 percent owner
S Craig Lindner	10 percent owner	ONE EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202

Infinity Property and Casualty (Infinity Property and Casualty) Headlines

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