Innophos Holdings (Innophos Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Innophos Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Innophos Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Innophos Holdings (Innophos Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Innophos Holdings Inc (NAS:IPHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

259 Prospect Plains Road, Cranbury, NJ, USA, 08512

Website

http://www.innophos.com

Innophos Holdings Inc is a holding company that manufactures and sells through its subsidiaries a variety of ingredients used in the production of food, beverages, dietary supplements, pharmaceuticals, and oral care products. Innophos ingredients are made primarily from specialty phosphates. The company organizes itself into three segments namely Food, Health and Nutrition; Industrial Specialties and Other. The Food, Health and Nutrition segment contribute the maximum revenue. The company operates in U.S., Canada, Mexico and other countries.

Executives

John M Steitz	director	ALBEMARLE CORP, 451 FLORIDA ST, BATON ROUGE LA 70801
Kim Ann Mink	director, officer: Chairman, CEO, President	259 PROSPECT PLAINS RD., BLDG A, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Gary A Cappeline	director	50 E RIVERCENTER BLVD, COVINGTON KY 41012
Karen R Osar	director	C/O WESTVACO CORP, ONE HIGH RIDGE PARK, STAMFORD CT 06905
Mark Santangelo	officer: Sr. VP, Mfg, Eng & EH&S	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Peter T Thomas	director	1000 LAKESIDE AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Hermanus Kieftenbeld	officer: Senior VP and CFO	259 PROSPECT PLAINS RD., BLDG A, CRANBURY NJ 08512
James P. Zallie	director	5 WESTBROOK CORPORATE CENTER, WESTCHESTER IL 60154
Randy Gress	director, officer: CEO	259 PROSPECT PLAINS ROAD, P O BOX 8000, CRANBURY NJ 08512-8000
Stephen M Zide	director	BAIN CAPITAL PARTNERS, JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Richard Heyse	officer: VP-Chief Financial Officer	259 PROSPECT PLAINS ROAD, BUILDING G, P O BOX 8000, CRANBURY NJ 08512-8000
Bain Capital Investors Llc	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Partners Vii Lp	10 percent owner	JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Fund Vii Llc	10 percent owner	JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Bain Capital Fund Vii Lp	10 percent owner	JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116