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Mapath Capital (Mapath Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is Mapath Capital Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mapath Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mapath Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mapath Capital (Mapath Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Mapath Capital Corp (OTCPK:IVFZF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:XCAP.P TSXV:AMYA.P TSXV:JJJJ.P TSXV:HMCC.P TSXV:LFC.P TSXV:NVN.P TSXV:TIDE.P TSXV:EVOC.P TSXV:AOCC.P TSXV:COLL.P BOM:543385 PBAJ CVII AACT SAGA ALCC LSE:ADMR ANSC NETD SCRM
Traded in Other Exchanges
MPTH.H:Canada
Address
999 Canada Place, Suite 654, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 3E1
Website
http://www.stockhouse.com
Mapath Capital Corp is currently seeking business opportunities.
Executives
Lee Joseph H.n. officer: Chief Financial Officer #500-750 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C2T7
Patrick J Spain director
Peak6 Investments, L.p. 10 percent owner 141 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60604
Aleph6 Llc 10 percent owner 141 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60604
Peak6 Capital Management Llc 10 percent owner 141 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60604
Susan Lovell officer: CFO 500 - 750 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 2T7
Jennifer Just 10 percent owner 141 JACKSON BLVD., CHICAGO IL 60604
Matthew Hulsizer 10 percent owner 141 JACKSON BLVD, CHICAGO IL 60604
Thomas Baker director 350 - NORTH POST ROAD, PRINCETON JUNCTION NJ 08850
Stephen Zacharias director 2220 CASTLEBRIDGE ROAD, MIDLOTHIAN VA 23113
Karl Heinrich Buhr officer: Chief Operating Officer 500 - 750 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C2T7
Audrey Brownmiller other: VP Of Operations C/O 500 - 750 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C2T7
Dana Stetson other: VP Sales 565 ALDA ROAD, MAMARONECK NY 10543
Janet Scardino director C/O THE KNOT, INC., 462 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
David Caddey director

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