IZEA Worldwide (IZEA Worldwide) Predictability Rank

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What is IZEA Worldwide Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IZEA Worldwide Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IZEA Worldwide (IZEA Worldwide) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » IZEA Worldwide Inc (NAS:IZEA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2IZ0:Germany

Address

1317 Edgewater Dr., Suite 1880, Orlando, FL, USA, 32804

Website

https://www.izea.com

IZEA Worldwide Inc is an online marketplace connecting marketers with the content creator that produce and distribute text, videos, and photos for marketers, blogs, and social media channels. The marketers include brands, agencies, and publishers that use the company's technology for the engagement of online influencers for influencer marketing campaigns or the creation of stand-alone content for distribution through their owned channels. The company provides its services to various industries including consumer products, retail, technology, and travel.

Executives

Lindsay A Gardner	director	C/O IZEA, INC., 480 N. ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Edward H Murphy	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O IZEA, INC., 480 NORTH ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, ORLANDO FL 32789
Daniel R Rua	director	480 NORTH ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Peter Biere	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BSQUARE CORPORATION, 110 110TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 300, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Leann C Hitchcock	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O IZEA, INC., 480 N. ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Justin Andrews	officer: Chief Financial Officer	480 N. ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Troy J Vanke	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PLAYTIKA LTD., HACHOSHLIM ST 8, HERZLIYA PITUARCH L3 4672408
Patrick James Venetucci	director	212 N WASHINGTON, PARK RIDGE IL 60068
Michael Heald Heald	officer: Chief Financial Officer	560 AVON GLADE PLACE, SANFORD FL 32771
Brian W Brady	director, 10 percent owner	480 N ORLANDO AVE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Awm Investment Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022
John H Caron	director	C/O IZEA, INC., 480 N. ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, ORLANDO FL 32789
Jill Golder	director	305 HARTMANN DRIVE, LEBANON TN 37087
Ryan S Schram	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	480 NORTH ORLANDO AVENUE, SUITE 200, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Marxe Austin W & Greenhouse David M	10 percent owner	C/O SPECIAL SITUATIONS FUNDS, 527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022