What is Jernigan Capital Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Jernigan Capital Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Jernigan Capital (Jernigan Capital) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6410 Poplar Avenue, Suite 650, Memphis, TN, USA, 38119
Jernigan Capital Inc is a real estate finance company. It offers capital to private developers, owners, and operators of self-storage facilities. The company's objective is to deliver long-term returns to shareholders by investing in newly constructed self-storage facilities and making loans secured by currently operating self-storage facilities. To achieve this objective company focuses on investments in development property and operating property loans. The majority of the revenue is generated from the interest income from investments made.
Executives
| David Corak |
officer: SVP, Corporate Finance |
6410 POPLAR AVE, SUITE 650, MEMPHIS TN 38119 |
| Rebecca L Owen |
director |
1750 H STREET, SUITE 500, COLUMBIA EQUITY TRUST, INC., WASHINGTON DC 20006 |
| Randy L Churchey |
director |
999 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 600, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Jonathan L Perry |
officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer |
5 OLD LANCASTER ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Kelly P Luttrell |
officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| James D Dondero |
director |
300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Dean Jernigan |
director, officer: Chairman and CEO |
C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031 |
| John A Good |
director, officer: President and COO |
C/O JERNIGAN CAPITAL, INC., 1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| William C. Drummond |
officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| Harry J. Thie |
director |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| Howard A Silver |
director |
999 SOUTH SHADY GROVE ROAD, SUITE 600, MEMPHIS TN 38120 |
| Mark O. Decker |
director |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| Sam J. Jenkins |
director |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| Gregory W. Ward |
officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131 |
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