Kadant (Kadant) Predictability Rank

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What is Kadant Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kadant Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kadant Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kadant (Kadant) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Kadant Inc (NYSE:KAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KDA:Germany

Address

One Technology Park Drive, Westford, MA, USA, 01886

Website

https://www.kadant.com

Kadant Inc. supplies process and engineering equipment for papermaking, recycling, lumber manufacturing, and related industries. The company's three reportable segments are: Flow Control segment which consists of the fluid-handling and doctoring, cleaning, & filtration product lines; Industrial Processing segment which consists of the wood processing and stock-preparation product lines; and Material handling systems, which provides conveyor-belt equipment for industries such as mining, food processing, and packaging. The company has a global presence with sizable revenue from the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Canada.

Executives

Thomas Andrew Blanchard	officer: Vice President	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Michael C. Colwell	officer: Vice President	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Erin L Russell	director	245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
John M Albertine	director	100 FEDERAL DRIVE, FREDERICKSBURG VA 22405
Dara F Mitchell	officer: Senior VP, Corp. Development	1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Peter J. Flynn	officer: Vice President	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Fredrik H Westerhout	officer: Vice President	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Stacy D. Krause	officer: VP, General Counsel, Secretary	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Michael J Mckenney	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	ONE ACTON PLACE STE.200, ACTON MA 01720
William P Tully	director	1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Rebecca Martinez O'mara	director	KADANT INC., 1 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Thomas C Leonard	director	KADANT INC., 1 TECHONOLOGY PARK DRIVE, WESTFORD MA 01886
Eric T Langevin	officer: Vice President	KADANT INC., ONE ACTON PLACE, SUITE 202, ACTON MA 01720
Jeffrey L Powell	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	1 WALNUT STREET, ACTON MA 01720
Jonathan W Painter	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	ONE ACTO PLACE, SUITE 202, ACTON MA 01720