KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III (KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III) Predictability Rank

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What is KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III (KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III Inc (OTCPK:KBSR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Newport Center Drive, Suite 700, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660

Website

http://www.kbsreitiii.com

KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III Inc is a real estate investment trust. The company invests in a diverse portfolio of real estate properties. It holds investments in office properties and mixed-use office/retail properties. The investment objective is to preserve and return stockholders capital contributions and to provide the stockholders with attractive and stable cash distributions.

Executives

Robert Milkovich	director	7600 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Marc Deluca	director	7297 HIGHLAND ESTATES PLACE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22043
Ron D. Sturzenegger	director	101 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 1750, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Jeffrey A. Dritley	director	C/O KBS REALTY ADVISORS, 800 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 700, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Jeff Waldvogel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O KBS REALTY ADVISORS, 800 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 700, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Stuart A Gabriel	director	155 N. LAKE AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Peter Mcmillan	director, officer: Executive Vice President
Barbara R Cambon	director	17140 BERNARDO CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 195, SAN DIEGO CA 92128
Hank Adler	director	6 HUTTON CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 400, SANTA ANA CA 92707
David E Snyder	officer: Chief Financial Officer	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1150, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Schreiber Charles J Jr	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Peter M Bren	officer: President	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Stacie K Yamane	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Keith D Hall	officer: Executive Vice President	620 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660

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