Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd (NAS:KNSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2 Church Street, Clarendon House, Hamilton, BMU, HM11

Website

https://www.kiniksa.com

Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, acquiring, developing, and commercializing therapeutic medicines for patients suffering from debilitating diseases. The company's clinical-stage product candidates include Rilonacept, for the treatment of recurrent pericarditis, a debilitating inflammatory cardiovascular disease; Mavrilimumab, a monoclonal antibody for the treatment of giant cell arteritis; Vixarelimab; and KPL-404.

Executives

Michael R Megna	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1050 HINGHAM STREET, ROCKLAND MA 02370
John Paolini	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Barry D Quart	director	C/O INTRABIOTICS PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 1009 OAK HILL ROAD, SUITE 201, LAFAYETTE CA 94549
Felix Baker	director	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
L.p. 667,	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors (gp) Llc	director	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	director	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Eben Tessari	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Arian Pano	officer: Chief Clinical Dev. Officer	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Ross Moat	officer: Group VP & Rilonacept GM	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Sanj K Patel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Thomas W. Beetham	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS, LTD., CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11
Mark Ragosa	officer: Interim CFO	C/O KINIKSA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP., 100 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421