nLight (nLight) Predictability Rank

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What is nLight Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

nLight Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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nLight (nLight) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » nLight Inc (NAS:LASR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4637 NW 18th Avenue, Camas, WA, USA, 98607

Website

https://www.nlight.net

nLight Inc is a United States-based company engaged in providing semiconductor and fiber lasers for industrial, microfabrication, and aerospace and defense applications. It operates in two segments: Laser Products, which includes semiconductor lasers, fiber lasers, and directed energy products; and Advanced Development segment includes revenue earned from research and development contracts. The majority of its revenue is generated from the Laser segment. The company's geographical segments include North America, China, and the Rest of the world.

Executives

Joseph John Corso	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4637 NW 18TH AVE, CAMAS WA 98607
James Nias	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	4637 NW 18TH AVENUE, CAMAS WA 98607
Scott H Keeney	director, officer: President and CEO	5408 NE 88TH STREET, BUILDING E, VANCOUVER WA 98665
Ran Bareket	officer: CFO	1005 VIRGINIA DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Camille Nichols	director	5408 NE 88TH STREET, BUILDING E, VANCOUVER WA 98665
Robert Martinsen	officer: Chief Technical Officer	5408 NE 88TH STREET, BUILDING E, VANCOUVER WA 98665
Sixth Mdv Partners, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	777 MARINERS ISLAND BLVD., STE. 550, SAN MATEO CA 94404
David D. Osborne	director	5408 NE 88TH STREET, BUILDING E, VANCOUVER WA 98665
Oak X Affiliates Fund Lp	10 percent owner	901 MAIN AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06851
Bandel L Carano	director, 10 percent owner	525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1300, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Douglas C Carlisle	director, 10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL RD, BLDG 4 STE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Mv Management Ix Llc	10 percent owner	2884 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
William Gossman	director	5408 NE 88TH STREET, BUILDING E, VANCOUVER WA 98665
Menlo Entrepreneurs Fund Ix A Lp	10 percent owner	2884 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Menlo Entrepreneurs Fund Ix Lp	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 4, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025