Light & Wonder (Light & Wonder) Predictability Rank

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What is Light & Wonder Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Light & Wonder Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Light & Wonder (Light & Wonder) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Light & Wonder Inc (NAS:LNW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TJW0:Germany LNW:Australia

Address

6601 Bermuda Road, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89119

Website

https://www.lnw.com

Light & Wonder is principally an electronic gaming machine manufacturer, selling machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in most jurisdictions allowing gambling globally. Light & Wonder is one of the top three largest players in the space along with International Game Technology and Aristocrat Leisure. SciPlay, about a quarter of revenue, develops and distributes casual mobile games, principally in the social casino niche. The more nascent iGaming business sits between these two businesses, providing digital content and capabilities to real-money gaming providers.

Executives

Vanja Kalabic	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Maria T Vullo	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Antonia Korsanos	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Oliver Chow	officer: Interim CFO	LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Hamish Mclennan	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Jamie Odell	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA RD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Fine Capital Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	3 COLUMBUS CIRCLE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael J Regan	director	14 BRENNER PLACE, DEMAREST NJ 07627
Siobhan Lane	officer: EVP & Grp Chief Exec of Gaming	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Stephen W Morro	director	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Debra Fine	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Fine Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
James Constance P.	officer: EVP, CFO, Treas & Corp Sec	C/O LIGHT & WONDER, INC., 6601 BERMUDA ROAD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Virginia E Shanks	director	4170 CAUGHLIN PARKWAY, RENO NV 89519
Ronald O Perelman	director, 10 percent owner	35 EAST 62ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10021