What is Dorian LPG Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dorian LPG Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Dorian LPG (Dorian LPG) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
27 Signal Road, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902
Dorian LPG Ltd is an international liquefied petroleum gas shipping company focused on owning and operating gas carriers, or VLGCs. The company currently owns and operates around 22 modern VLGCs, including nineteen new fuel-efficient 84,000 cbm ECO-design VLGCs. Dorian LPG has offices in Connecticut, USA, London, United Kingdom, and Athens, Greece.
Executives
| John C Hadjipateras |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O DORIAN LPG (USA) LLC, 27 SIGNAL ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Christina Tan |
director |
1453 FAIRFIELD BEACH ROAD, FAIRFIELD CT 06824 |
| Theodore B. Young |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O DORIAN LPG (USA) LLC, 27 SIGNAL ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Alexander C. Hadjipateras |
officer: EVP at Dorian LPG (USA) LLC |
C/O DORIAN LPG (USA) LLC, 27 SIGNAL ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Tim Truels Hansen |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
STRANDHOLMS ALLE 23, HVIDOVRE G7 2650 |
| John Lycouris |
director, officer: CEO of Dorian LPG (USA) LLC |
C/O DORIAN LPG (USA) LLC, 27 SIGNAL ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Thomas Jason Coleman |
director |
C/O KENSICO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 55 RAILROAD AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Marit Lunde |
director |
27 SIGNAL ROAD, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Ted Kalborg |
director |
C/O TUFTON OCEANIC LIMITED, ALBEMARLE HOUSE, 1, ALBEMARLE STREET, LONDON X0 SW1 4HA |
| Bw Group Ltd |
10 percent owner |
MAPLETREE BUSINESS CITY, #18-01;, 10 PASIR PANJANG ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 117438 |
| Bw Lpg Holding Ltd |
other: Member of 10% owner group |
C/O MAPLETREE BUSINESS CITY #17-02, 10 PASIR PANJANG ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 117438 |
| Hna Investment Management Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O HNA GROUP NORTH AMERICA LLC, 1180 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Scorpio Tankers Inc. |
10 percent owner |
L'EXOTIQUE 99 BOULEVARD JARDIN EXOTIQUE, MONACO O9 98000 |
| Family Foundation Sohmen |
10 percent owner |
HEILIGKREUZ 6, P O BOX 484, VADUZ N2 FL-9490 |
| Bw Euroholdings Ltd |
10 percent owner |
MAPLETREE BUSINESS CITY, #18-01;, 10 PASIR PANJANG ROAD, SINGAPORE U0 117438 |
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