What is Lake Shore Bancorp Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Lake Shore Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Lake Shore Bancorp (Lake Shore Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
31 East Fourth Street, Dunkirk, NY, USA, 14048
Lake Shore Bancorp Inc operates as a savings and loan holdings company. The bank's business consists of attracting retail deposits from the general public in the areas surrounding its branch offices and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations, primarily in commercial real estate loans, one-to-four family residential mortgage loans, home equity lines of credit and, to a lesser extent, commercial business loans, consumer loans, and investment securities. Its revenues are principally derived from interest earned on loans and investment securities.
Executives
| Kim C Liddell |
Dir., Pres. and CEO of Bank, other: Dir., Pres. and CEO of Bank |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Ronald J Passafaro |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Kevin M. Sanvidge |
director, other: Chairman of the Board |
128 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Ann M Segarra |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Taylor Gilden |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| John L Mehltretter |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Jennifer L Zatkos |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Robert V Cortellucci |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Michelle M Debergalis |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Catharine M Young |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Tracy Steve Bennett |
director |
125 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| John P Mcgrath |
director |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Daniel P Reininga |
director, officer: President and CEO |
125 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Jeffrey M. Werdein |
officer: EVP-Commercial Division |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
| Beverly Sutton |
officer: Internal Auditor |
31 EAST FOURTH STREET, DUNKIRK NY 14048 |
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