Calculus VCT (LSE:CLC) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is Calculus VCT Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calculus VCT Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Calculus VCT Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Calculus VCT's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Calculus VCT (LSE:CLC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Calculus VCT PLC (LSE:CLC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

12 Conduit Street, London, GBR, W1S 2XH

Website

https://www.calculuscapital.com

Calculus VCT PLC is a part of the financial services sector in the United Kingdom. The company operates as a venture capital trust with a focus on the investment business. Its investment objective is to invest primarily in a diverse portfolio of United Kingdom growth companies whether unquoted or traded on AIM. The company invests in a portfolio of venture capital investments that will provide investment returns sufficient to allow the company to maximize annual dividends with the goal of capital growth over the medium to long term.

Calculus VCT (LSE:CLC) Headlines

From GuruFocus

CLARCOR Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus 10qk • 03-18-2011

CLARCOR Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus • 03-20-2009

CLARCOR Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus • 06-19-2009

9 Stocks Joel Greenblatt Continues to Buy

By Tiziano Frateschi Tiziano Frateschi • 11-30-2016

CLARCOR Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus 10qk • 09-18-2009

Mario Gabelli Comments on Clarcor Inc.

By Holly LaFon Holly LaFon • 01-31-2017