Learning Tree International (Learning Tree International) Predictability Rank

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What is Learning Tree International Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Learning Tree International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Learning Tree International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Learning Tree International (Learning Tree International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Learning Tree International Inc (OTCPK:LTRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

13650 Dulles Technology Drive, Suite 400, Herndon, VA, USA, 20171

Website

http://www.learningtree.com

Learning Tree International Inc provides education and training in information technology. Its proprietary library of course titles focuses on client-server systems, computer networks, operating systems, databases, programming, graphical user interfaces, object-oriented technology, and IT management. Its courses are offered in hotels, conference facilities, and customer sites.

Executives

Alimco Financial Corp	other: See Remarks	2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD SUITE 400, STUART FL 34996
Gracia C Martore	director	C/O OMNICOM GROUP INC., 437 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Neil S Subin	10 percent owner	2336 S.E. OCEAN BOULEVARD, #400, STUART FL 34996
Osmium Capital Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Spartan L P	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
John Hartnett Lewis	10 percent owner	388 MARKET STREET, SUITE 920, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Osmium Capital Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Sarah Fisher Gardial	director	PO BOX 73909, CEDAR RAPIDS IA 52407-3909
Miller Lloyd I Iii	10 percent owner
Curtis A Hessler	director	1805 LIBRARY STREET, SUITE 300, RESTON VA 20190
Bain Howard A Iii	director	10200 S DEANZA BLVD, CUPERTINO CA 95014
George T Robson	director	1805 LIBRARY STREET, RESTON VA 20190
Godbold Wilford D Jr	director	5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008

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