What is Trxade Health Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Trxade Health Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Trxade Health (Trxade Health) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2420 Brunello Trace., Lutz, FL, USA, 33558
Trxade Health Inc is a health service IT company focused on digitalizing the retail pharmacy experience by optimizing drug procurement, the prescription journey, and patient engagement in the U.S. Its product and services include Integra Pharma Solutions, LLC, Community Specialty Pharmacy, LLC, Delivmeds.com, Bonum Health Hub and Application, and others. its business is classified into reportable segments which are Trxade, Inc, Community Specialty Pharmacy, LLC, Integra Pharma, LLC, and Other, and the majority of the revenue comes from Trxade, Inc.
Executives
| A. Jeffrey Newell |
director |
645 CAMP DIXIE RD, PASCOAG RI 02859 |
| Donald G. Fell |
director |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 33558 |
| Janet Huffman |
officer: CFO, PAO, PFO |
5317 FRUITVILLE RD SUITE 6, SARASOTA FL 34232 |
| Michael L Peterson |
director |
17 CANARY COURT, DANVILLE CA 94526 |
| Christine L. Jennings |
director |
3840 LAND O' LAKES BLVD., LAND O' LAKES FL 34639 |
| Prashant Patel |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 33558 |
| Pamela Tenaerts |
director |
PO BOX 15012, SARASOTA FL 34277 |
| Gary Augusta |
director |
700 NORTH BRAND BLVD., SUITE 1400, GLENDALE CA 91203 |
| Howard A. Doss |
officer: CFO |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 90067 |
| Surendra K Ajjarapu |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
8604 BUTTON BUSH CT, TAMPA FL 33647 |
| Donald V. Almeida |
director |
1115 GUNN HIGHWAY, SUITE 202, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Charles L Pope |
director |
4902 EISENHOWER BOULEVARD, TAMPA FL 33634 |
| Sandhya Ajjarapu |
10 percent owner |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 33558 |
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