Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund Predictability Rank

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What is Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund (NYSE:MFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

120 East Liberty Drive, Suite 400, Wheaton, IL, USA, 60187

Website

http://www.ftportfolios.com

Macquarie/First Trust Global Infrastructure/Utilities Dividend&Income Fund is a diversified, closed-end management company. Its objective is to seek a high level of current return consisting of dividends, interest, and other similar income while attempting to preserve capital. The fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing in the securities of companies involved in the management, ownership, and operation of infrastructure and utilities. It also invests in senior secured loans generally considered to be high-yield securities. The company portfolio of investments consists of the investment in the common stocks, master limited partnerships, and senior floating-rate loan interests.

Executives

Bronwyn Wright	director	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
William H Speacht	other: Investment Advisor	2005 MARKET ST, 34TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Thomas R Kadlec	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS LP, 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
M Keefe Denise	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Kelly Catherine Dehler	other: Officer-Investment Advisor	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Scott Michael Friske	other: Officer-Investment Advisor	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Robert F Keith	director	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Fink William J Jr	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	125 WEST 55TH STREET, LEVEL 15, NEW YORK NY 10019
Shane Shannon	officer: Assistant Secretary	FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
John H Kim	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 1251 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Jonathan S Ong	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	1 MARTIN PLACE, LEVEL 21, SYDNEY C3 2000
Donald Swade	officer: Assistant Treasurer	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Katherine L Urevig	officer: Assistant Treasurer	C/O FIRST TRUST ADVISORS L.P., 120 EAST LIBERTY DRIVE, SUITE 400, WHEATON IL 60187
Anthony Felton	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	1 MARTIN PLACE, LEVEL 21, SYDNEY C3 2000
Andrew Maple-brown	other: Officer-Investment Sub-Advisor	125 WEST 55TH STREET, LEVEL 15, NEW YORK NY 10019