What is MoneyGram International Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
MoneyGram International Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
MoneyGram International (MoneyGram International) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2828 North Harwood Street, 15th Floor, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
MoneyGram International Inc offers products and services under its two reporting segments; Global Funds Transfer, which is the core revenue generator, and Financial Paper Products. The Global Funds Transfer segment provides global money transfer services and bill payment services to consumers. It primarily offers services through third-party agents, including retail chains, independent retailers, post offices and other financial institutions. The company also offer Digital solutions such as moneygram.com, mobile solutions, account deposit and kiosk-based services. The Financial Paper Products segment provides official check outsourcing services and money orders through financial institutions and agent locations. The group operates in the United States and other countries.
Executives
| Robert L Villasenor |
officer: GC, Corp Sec and CAO |
2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Chris H. Russell |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSOTN TX 77032 |
| Julie Silcock |
director |
|
| Adrianna E. Greenwald |
officer: Chief Readiness Officer |
2828 N. HARWOOD ST., 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Alka Gupta |
director |
2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Francisco Lorca |
director |
2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Brian Johnson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2828 NORTH HARWOOD ST, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Andres Villareal |
officer: SVP Chief Compliance Officer |
2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Lawrence Angelilli |
officer: EVP Chief Financial Officer |
2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Peggy Vaughan |
director |
2828 NORTH HARVARD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Grant A. Lines |
officer: EVP Business Development |
2828 NORTH HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| W Bruce Turner |
director |
3773 HOWARD HUGHES PKWY, SUITE 490 SOUTH, LAS VAGAS NV 89109 |
| Michael P Rafferty |
director |
12700 PARK CENTRAL DRIVE SUITE 1700, DALLAS TX 75251 |
| W. Alexander Holmes |
director, officer: CEO |
2828 NORTH HARWOOD STREET, 15TH FLOOR, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Antonio O Garza |
director |
500 W. ILLINOIS, SUITE 100, MIDLAND TX 79701 |
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