Meritage Hospitality Group (Meritage Hospitality Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Meritage Hospitality Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Meritage Hospitality Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Meritage Hospitality Group (Meritage Hospitality Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Meritage Hospitality Group Inc (OTCPK:MHGU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MHGUP.PFD:USA

Address

45 Ottawa Avenue SW, Suite 600, Grand Rapids, MI, USA, 49503

Website

http://www.meritagehospitality.com

Meritage Hospitality Group Inc is one of the nation's premier restaurant operators, with more than 300 restaurants in operation located in Arkansas, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Executives

Duane F Kluting	director	3100 44TH STREET SW, GRANDVILLE MI 49418
Roger L Zingle	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6132 PICKWOOD DRIVE, WEST BLOOMFIELD MI 48322
Gary A Rose	officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer	223 EAST MT. GARFIELD ROAD, NORTON SHORES MI 49441
Robert E. Schermer Revocable Living Trust U/a Dated 4/28/97	10 percent owner	C/O ROBERT W. BAIRD & CO. INC., 333 BRIDGE STREET, N.W., SUITE 1000, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49504
Gulis Stephen L Jr	director	9341 COURTLAND DRIVE NE, ROCKFORD MI 49351
James R Saalfeld	officer: VP, Secretary and Treasurer	MERITAGE HOSPITALITY GROUP INC, 1971 EAST BELTLINE AVE, N.E., STE. 200, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Robert H Potts	officer: Vice President of Real Estate	1971 EAST BELTLINE AVE NE, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Schermer Robert E Jr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1971 EAST BELTLINE AVE, N.E., SUITE 200, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49525
Robert E Riley	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	40 PEARL STREET NW, SUITE 900, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49503
James P Bishop	director	4230 SOUTH WESTNEDGE, KALAMAZOO MI 49006
Schermer Robert E Sr	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board	C/O ROBERT W BLAIR & CO. INC., 333 BRIDGE STREET, SUITE 1000, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49504
Joseph L Maggini	director	4242 CLAY STREET SW, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49548
Brian N Mcmahon	director	542 TONBRIDGE COURT, PERRYSBURG OH 43551