Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC (Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC) Predictability Rank

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What is Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC (Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC (NYSE:MIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

125 West 55th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.micinc.com

Macquarie Infrastructure Holdings LLC is a diversified business company. The company's business comprises (i) Hawaii Gas, Hawaii's only government-franchised gas utility and an unregulated LPG distribution business providing gas and related services to industrial, commercial, residential, and governmental customers; (ii) controlling interests in two solar facilities on Oahu; and (iii) smaller projects collectively engaged in efforts to reduce the cost and improve the reliability and sustainability of energy in Hawaii. The company serves corporations, government agencies, and individual customers primarily in the United States.

Executives

Christopher Frost	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION 125 WEST 55TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Nick O'neil	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE CORPORATION 125 WEST 55TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Kernan	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	125 W 55TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Jay Davis	officer: Vice President	125 W. 55TH STREET LEVEL 15 NEW YORK NY 10019
Martin Stanley	director	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY LLC 125 WEST 55TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Ronald Kirk	director	TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED, 12500 TI BOULEVARD MS 3999, DALLAS TX 75243
Maria S. Dreyfus	director	125 WEST 55TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ouma Sananikone	director	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY LLC, 125 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Henry E Lentz	director	ONE WILLIAMS CENTER, SUITE 3800, TULSA OK 74172
Amanda M Brock	director	840 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77024
Brown Norman H Jr	director	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY LLC 125 WEST 55TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Mihi Llc	director, 10 percent owner	125 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Macquarie Infrastructure Management (usa) Inc	director, 10 percent owner	125 WEST 55TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10019
Macquarie Group Ltd	10 percent owner	50 MARTIN PLACE, SYDNEY, NSW 2000 C3 2000
Carmany George W Iii	other: Former Director	C/O MACQUARIE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPANY LLC 600 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10020