Molina Healthcare (Molina Healthcare) Predictability Rank

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What is Molina Healthcare Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Molina Healthcare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Molina Healthcare (Molina Healthcare) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Plans » Molina Healthcare Inc (NYSE:MOH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MHG:Germany MHG:Germany

Address

200 Oceangate, Suite 100, Long Beach, CA, USA, 90802

Website

https://www.molinahealthcare.com

Molina Healthcare Inc offers healthcare plans focused on Medicaid-related solutions for low-income families and individuals. Its health plans are operated by a network of subsidiaries, each of which is licensed as a health maintenance organization (HMO). In addition to its Health Plans segment, Molina has a Medicaid,Medicare, and Marketplace segment that represent the government-funded or sponsored programs under their management information systems. Molina's Medicaid plans receive revenue on a per-member per-month basis from state government agencies, and its Medicare Advantage plans receive revenue from managed care plans that contract with the Centers for Medicaid and Medicare (CMS). Molina also provides plans through health insurance exchanges.

Executives

Ronna Romney	director
Steven J Orlando	director
Maurice Hebert	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS, INC., 8735 HENDERSON ROAD, TAMPA FL 33634
Marc Russo	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O WELLCARE HEALTH PLANS, INC., 8725 HENDERSON ROAD, REN. 1, TAMPA FL 33634
Jeff D. Barlow	officer: Chief Legal Officer	300 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 100, SACRAMENTO CA 95825
Barbara L Brasier	director	C/O MEADWESTVACO CORP, ONE HIGH RIDGE PARK, STAMFORD CT 06905
Daniel Cooperman	director	DANIEL COOPERMAN, 930 CULEBRA ROAD, HILLSBOROUGH CA 94010
Dale B Wolf	director
Richard M Schapiro	director	300 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 100, SACRAMENTO CA 95825
Joseph M Zubretsky	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O THE HANOVER INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 440 LINCOLN STREET, WORCESTER MA 01653
Mark Lowell Keim	officer: Executive Vice President	440 LINCOLN STREET, E-6, WORCESTER MA 01653
James Woys	officer: Executive Vice President	21650 OXNARD STREET, 22ND FLOOR, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Thomas L Tran	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8735 HENDERSON ROAD, TAMPA FL 33625
Stephen H Lockhart	director	C/O NATIONAL RESEARCH CORPORATION, 1245 Q STREET, LINCOLN NE 68508
Garrey Carruthers	director	5258 REDMAN RD., LAS CRUCES NM 88011