What is Marlin Business Services Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Marlin Business Services Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Marlin Business Services (Marlin Business Services) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
300 Fellowship Road, Mount Laurel, NJ, USA, 08054
Marlin Business Services Corp is a provider of credit products and services to small businesses. The company provide equipment financing programs to manufacturers, distributors and dealers to help increase their sales and meet the needs of their small business customers. Marlin derives its revenue from interest and fees from leases and loans and, to a lesser extent, income from its property insurance program and other fee income.
Executives
| Jeffrey Albert Hilzinger |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
3 CEDAR RIDGE DRIVE, CHESTER NJ 07930 |
| Matthew J Sullivan |
10 percent owner |
1230 PEACHTREE STREET, NE SUITE 1900 ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| Lawrence J Deangelo |
director |
C/O MARLIN BUSINESS SERVICES CORP 124 GAITHER DR MOUNT LAUREL NJ 08054 |
| Ryan S Melcher |
officer: SVP and General Counsel |
C/O MARLIN BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. 300 FELLOWSHIP ROAD MT. LAUREL NJ 07728 |
| Michael R Bogansky |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O PHH CORPORATION 3000 LEADENHALL ROAD MT. LAUREL NJ 08054 |
| Willem Mesdag |
10 percent owner |
C/O RED MOUNTAIN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT INC., 10100 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 925, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| James Sherlock |
officer: Senior Vice President |
8 WILCOTE WAY MEDFORD NJ 08055 |
| Dietz Edward Ralph Jr. |
officer: General Counsel |
139 GLENWOOD ROAD HADDONFIELD NJ 08033 |
| James W Wert |
director |
|
| Aswin Rajappa |
officer: Chief Marketing Officer |
1 GREYLYNNE DRIVE PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Laura C Anger |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
C/O FLAGSTAR BANCORP INC., 5151 CORPORATE DRIVE, TROY MI 48098 |
| Louis Evan Maslowe |
officer: Chief Credit Officer |
11 SOUTHWINDS LANE MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Edward John Siciliano |
officer: Chief Sales Officer |
343 CHRISTOPHER DRIVE PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Michael Louis Mattingly |
officer: Senior Vice President |
223 NATHAN DRIVE CINNAMINSON NJ 08077 |
| Gregory Lee Sting |
officer: Senior Vice President |
4 SHEFFIELD COURT MEDFORD NJ 08055 |
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