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MainStreetChamber Holdings (MainStreetChamber Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is MainStreetChamber Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


MainStreetChamber Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MainStreetChamber Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MainStreetChamber Holdings (MainStreetChamber Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3753 Howard Hughes Parkway, Suite 200-1220, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89169
MainStreetChamber Holdings Inc formerly Walker Lane Exploration Inc is involved in the business activity of acquiring other business entities for the purpose of helping them grow in their respective market and operations. The clients of the company include Aloha Laundry Life, Final Mile Technologies, Kathy Ireland Kids and others.
Executives
Huntley Barr Andrews 10 percent owner, other: CEO of Subsidiary 975A ELGIN ST. WEST, SUITE 413, COBOURG A6 K9A 5J3
Ted Riley Sharp director, officer: CFO 714 WHISPERWOOD COURT, NAMPA ID 83686
Eric Stevenson 10 percent owner, officer: VP Business Development 4098 QUINN DRIVE, CARSON CITY NV 89701
Steven Kendall Jones director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 14674 GOLD RUN DRIVE, RENO NV 89521
Keith Adrian Simon director, officer: Secretary-Treasurer 963 CHIP CREEK COURT, MINDEN NV 89423
Thomas Mancuso director 1421 SANDIA COURT, RENO NV 89523
Trevor A Moss director 3645 CROWN HILL DRIVE, SANTA ROSA CA 95404
Sje Mining Llc 10 percent owner, other: 70% owner 205 RED WING DRIVE, DAYTON NV 89403
Barbara Jean Erdmann officer: Corporate Secretary 23537 WINDOM ST, WEST HILLS CA 91304
Leon Caldwell director, officer: President/CFO 12021 WILSHIRE BLVD 535, LOS ANGELES CA 90025

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