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MTGE Investment (MTGE Investment) Predictability Rank


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What is MTGE Investment Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MTGE Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

MTGE Investment Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of MTGE Investment's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

MTGE Investment (MTGE Investment) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » MTGE Investment Corp (NAS:MTGEP.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HIFR ASX:CLW BKK:WHART TSE:8977 XTER:HAB XPAR:ARG MIL:IGD JSE:IPF XTAE:RIT1 AFIN XMAD:YZBL AHH XBRU:WEHB XMAD:LRE SGX:CRPU JSE:ATT TSX:AX.UN XBRU:INTO RC TSE:8966
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.mtge.com
MTGE Investment is a hybrid mortgage REIT that invests in, finances, and manages a portfolio of agency mortgage-backed securities, nonagency mortgage investments, and other real estate-related assets. Its residential mortgage-backed securities, or RMBS, include residential mortgage pass-through certificates and collateralised mortgage obligations. Its nonagency mortgage investments comprise RMBS backed by residential mortgages, as well as prime and nonprime residential mortgage loans. The company generates its revenue from the interest earned and lease payments received on its investment assets. MTGE Investment's assets are externally managed by a subsidiary of AGNC Investment.
Executives
Julia Lynn Coronado director C/O DYNEX CAPITAL, INC., 4991 LAKE BROOK DRIVE, SUITE 100, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Robert M. Couch director AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY CORP., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Randy E. Dobbs director C/O VIEMED HEALTHCARE, INC, 625 E. KALISTE SALOOM RD, LAFAYETTE LA 70508
Sean Reid officer: CEO AGNC INVESTMENT CORP., 7373 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Steven W. Abrahams director MTGE INVESTMENT CORP., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Kenneth L. Pollack officer: SVP and Secretary AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY CORP., 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Donald Holley officer: SVP and Chief Accounting Off. AMERICAN CAPITAL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT COR, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Aaron Pas officer: SVP AMERICAN CAPITAL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT COR, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 12TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Prue Larocca director AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY CORP., 7373 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Sab Capital Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Sab Capital Management Llc 10 percent owner 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Sab Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Scott A Bommer 10 percent owner 712 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Christopher Kuehl officer: SVP, Agency Portfolio Invt AMERICAN CAPITAL AGENCY CORP., 7373 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 22ND FL, BETHESDA MD 20814
John R Erickson director, officer: EVP, CFO and Asst. Sec. 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, 14TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814