Myrexis (Myrexis) Predictability Rank

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What is Myrexis Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Myrexis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Myrexis Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Myrexis (Myrexis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Myrexis Inc (OTCPK:MYRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

630 Fifth Avenue, Suite 2260, New York, NY, USA, 10020

Website

http://www.myrexis.com

Myrexis Inc is engaged in evaluating strategic alternatives, such as identifying, evaluating and making financial investments in life sciences assets.

Executives

Xstelos Corp.	10 percent owner	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2260, NEW YORK NY 10020
Steven D Scheiwe	director	1741 EDGEFIELD LANE, ENCINITAS CA 92024
Pearce Michael Cooper	director	213 RHODODENDRON DRIVE, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517
Jonathan Couchman	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2260, NEW YORK NY 10020
John T Henderson	director	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
First Eagle Investment Management, Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jason Aryeh	director	11119 NORTH TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Gerald P. Belle	director	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
David W Gryska	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	749 N MARY AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Richard B Brewer	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DENDREON CORP, 3005 1ST AVE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Timothy R Franson	director	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Dennis Langer	director	C/O PETER TSOFLIAS, BLANK ROME LLP, ONE LOGAN SQUARE, FL 9, PHILADELPHA PA 19103
Robert Forrester	director	C/O COMBINATORX, INCORPORATED, 245 FIRST STREET, 3RD FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Adrian N Hobden	director, officer: President and CEO	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
W Wayne Laslie	officer: Chief Operating Officer	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108

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