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Blue Nile (Blue Nile) Predictability Rank


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What is Blue Nile Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Blue Nile Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blue Nile Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blue Nile's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Blue Nile (Blue Nile) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Blue Nile Inc is a Delaware corporation incorporated on March 18, 1999 as RockShop.com, Inc. The Company is an online retailer of high-quality diamonds and fine jewelery. The Company's website showcases more than 100,000 independently certified diamonds and styles of fine jewelery, including rings, wedding bands, earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, gifts, and accessories. It also customizes diamond jewelry with its Build Your Own feature that offers customers the ability to customize diamond rings, pendants and earrings. It has developed an efficient online cost structure and supply solution that eliminates traditional layers of diamond wholesalers and brokers, which allows the Company to purchase its product offerings at lower prices by avoiding mark-ups imposed by intermediaries. The Company's merchandise consists of engagement and non-engagement products. The engagement product category includes gold or platinum engagement rings with a diamond center stone and loose diamonds. Its non-engagement product category includes rings, wedding bands, earrings, necklaces, pendants, bracelets, gifts and accessories containing precious metals, diamonds, gemstones, or pearls. The Company's diamond supplier relationships allow it to display suppliers diamond inventories on its website for sale to consumers without holding the diamonds in its inventory until the products are ordered by customers. It purchases polished diamonds from over 100 suppliers. Its diamond suppliers purchase rough and polished diamonds from sources throughout the world. It offers diamonds with specified characteristics in the areas of shape, cut, color, clarity, and carat weight. The Company purchases diamonds on a just in time basis from its suppliers when a customer places an order for a specific diamond and then assembles the diamond with a ring, pendant or earring setting from its inventory into customized diamond jewelry according to customers specifications. The finished jewellery is delivered to the customer generally within three to seven business days from the order date and within one business day for Signature diamonds. The Company's primary competition comes from independent jewelry stores; retail jewelry store chains, such as Tiffany & Co.; online retailers that sell jewelry and online jewelry retailers, such as Amazon.com, James Allen, and Brilliant Earth; department stores, chain stores and mass retailers, such as Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus; online auction sites, such as eBay; catalog and television shopping retailers, such as HSN and QVC; discount superstores and wholesale clubs, such as Wal-Mart and Costco Wholesale; and internet shopping clubs, such as Gilt Groupe and Rue La La.
Executives
Chris Bruzzo director 411 FIRST AVE., SOUTH, SUITE 700, SEATTLE WA 98104
Michael J Potter director
Mindy C Meads director 3333 BEVERLY ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60179
Van Schoonenberg Robert G director 150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103
Scott E Howe director 740 JACARANDA CIRCLE, HILLSBOROUGH CA 94010
Harvey S Kanter director, officer: CEO, Chairman and President C/O DESTINATION XL GROUP, INC., 555 TURNPIKE STREET, CANTON MA 02021
David Bradley Binder officer: EVP, CAO, & CFO 601 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 1200, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Mary Alice Taylor director DELL COMPUTER CORP, ONE DELL WAY, ROUND ROCK TX 78682
Steven Scheid director C/O NMI HOLDINGS, INC., 2100 POWELL STREET, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Mark C Vadon director 705 FIFTH AVE S STE 900, SEATTLE WA 98104
W Eric Carlborg director 1475 FOLSOM STREET, SUITE 200, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Terri K Maupin officer: CAO C/O EMERITUS CORPORATION, 3131 ELLIOTT AVENUE, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98121
Vijay Talwar officer: President of International 705 FIFTH AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, SEATTLE WA 98104
Diane M Irvine officer: Former CEO C/O YELP INC., 350 MISSION STREET, 10TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Marianne Marck officer: Senior VP of Technology 705 FIFTH AVE., SOUTH, SUITE 900, SEATTLE WA 98104

Blue Nile (Blue Nile) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) Executive Chairman Mark C Vadon sells 20,376 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 09-01-2010

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) CEO Diane M Irvine sells 2,200 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 09-10-2009

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) Executive Chairman Mark C Vadon sells 95,471 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 01-21-2010

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) Executive Chairman Mark C Vadon sells 28,229 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 12-05-2009

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) CEO Diane M Irvine sells 5,667 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 10-08-2009

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) CEO Diane M Irvine sells 8,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 01-06-2011

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) CEO Diane M Irvine sells 5,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 12-08-2010

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) Executive Chairman Mark C Vadon sells 95,471 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 01-07-2010

Blue Nile Inc. (NILE) CEO Diane M Irvine sells 1,000 Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor 10-24-2009

Blue Nile Inc. Reports Operating Results (10-Q)

By gurufocus 10qk 08-11-2010