Neoleukin Therapeutics (Neoleukin Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Neoleukin Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neoleukin Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Neoleukin Therapeutics (Neoleukin Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Neoleukin Therapeutics Inc (NAS:NLTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

188 East Blaine Street, Suite 450, Seattle, WA, USA, 98102

Website

https://www.neoleukin.com

Neoleukin Therapeutics Inc operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The firm generates immunotherapies using de novo protein design technology. It uses computational methods to design proteins that demonstrate specific pharmaceutical properties that provide potentially superior therapeutic benefits over native proteins to treat serious diseases, including cancer, inflammatory, and autoimmune disorders. Its product line comprises NL-201, which is a combined IL-2 and IL-15 agonist designed to eliminate alpha receptor binding.

Executives

Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Sean Michael Smith	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 188 E. BLAINE STREET, SUITE 450, SEATTLE WA 98102
Priti Patel	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 188 EAST BLAINE STREET, #450, SEATTLE WA 98102
Erin Lavelle	director	C/O ALDER BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 11804 NORTH CREEK PARKWAY SOUTH, BOTHELL WA 98011
Donna Cochener	officer: General Counsel, SVP Legal	C/O NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 188 EAST BLAINE STREET, SUITE 450, SEATTLE WA 98102
Rohan Palekar	director	201 SPEAR STREET, THIRD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jonathan G Drachman	director, officer: See Remarks	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Carl Walkey	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 360-1616 EASTLAKE AVENUE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98102
Robert Ho	officer: Chief Financial Officer	360-1616 EASTLAKE AVENUE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98102
Holly Vance	officer: General Counsel	C/O NEOLEUKIN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 360-1616 EASTLAKE AVENUE E., SEATTLE WA 98102
Martin Babler	director	C/O INFINITY PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 780 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Erin M. Lavelle	director	360-1616 EASTLAKE AVENUE EAST, SEATTLE WA 98102
Redmile Group, Llc	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE D3-300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Jeremy Green	10 percent owner	45 W. 27TH STREET, FLOOR 11, NEW YORK NY 10001
Sarah B. Noonberg	director	331 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080