What is Nano Magic Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Nano Magic Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Nano Magic (Nano Magic) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
31601 Research Park Drive, Madison Heights, MI, USA, 48071
Nano Magic Inc is engaged in the marketing and sale of products enabled by nanotechnology. It develops and sells products based on its portfolio of intellectual property and its products include a portfolio of nano-layer coatings, nano-based cleaners, printable inks, pastes, and thermal management materials. Its products can be used on eyeglasses, extreme sport and safety glasses and goggles, electronic screens, windows, mirrors, shower doors, and cleaning everyday household surfaces.
Executives
| Scott E. Rickert |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President & Chairman |
431 FAIRWAY DR, SUITE 200, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33441 |
| Jeanne M Rickert |
director, officer: Chief Legal Officer |
431 FAIRWAY DR, SUITE 200, DEERFIELD BEACH FL 33441 |
| Ronald J Berman |
director |
701 BRICKELL AVENUE, SUITE 1550, MIAMI FL 33131 |
| Raymond William Gunn |
director |
56420 NEWPORT DRIVE, SHELBY TOWNSHIP MI 48316 |
| David M Sherbin |
director |
4181 AO SOUTHMOOR LANE, WEST BLOOMFIELD MI 48323 |
| Miles Geoffrey Gatland |
director |
1110 ISLAND DRIVE, COMMERCE TOWNSHIP MI 48382 |
| Lara O'connor Hodgson |
director |
8 HABERSHAM PARK, ATLANTA GA 30305 |
| Magic Growth 2 Llc |
10 percent owner |
31601 RESEARCH PARK DRIVE, MADISON HEIGHTS MI 48071 |
| Magic Growth Llc |
10 percent owner |
750 DENISON COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| Tom J. Berman |
director, officer: President |
750 DENISON COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| John Todd Lunsford |
director |
4971 CHERRY BLOSSOM CIRCLE, WEST BLOOMFIELD MI 48324 |
| Leandro Vera |
officer: CFO |
11271 N ROCKING R RD., HAYDEN ID 83835 |
| Jacqueline M Soptick |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
3006 LONGHORN BLVD, STE 107, AUSTIN TX 78732 |
| Pen Comeback 2, Llc |
10 percent owner |
750 DENISON COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| Pen Comeback, Llc |
10 percent owner |
750 DENISON COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
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