Norwood Financial (Norwood Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Norwood Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Norwood Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Norwood Financial (Norwood Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Norwood Financial Corp (NAS:NWFL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

717 Main Street, P.O. Box 269, Honesdale, PA, USA, 18431

Website

https://www.wayne.bank

Norwood Financial Corp is a U.S.-based bank holding company. It offers various personal and business credit services, trust and investment products, and real estate settlement services to consumers, businesses, nonprofit organizations, and municipalities in each of the communities that the bank serves. The bank also manages automated teller machines at its branch location. It serves the Pennsylvanian counties of Wayne, Pike, Monroe, and Lackawanna, as well as Susquehanna County.

Executives

Andrew Forte	director	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
James O Donnelly	officer: President & CEO	717 MAIN ST, HONESDALE PA 18431
Jeffrey S Gifford	director	GIFFORD JEFFREY S, 717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Joseph W Adams	director	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
William S Lance	officer: EVP & CFO	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
John F Carmody	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Lewis J Critelli	director, officer: President & CEO	P O BOX 269, 717 MAIN ST, HONESDALE PA 18431
Alexandra K Nolan	director	NOLAN ALEXANDRA K, 717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Robert J Mancuso	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Vincent O'bell	officer: See Remarks	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Davis William W Jr	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	P O BOX 269, 717 MAIN ST, HONESDALE PA 18431
Kenneth A Phillips	director	P O BOX 269, 717 MAIN ST, HONESDALE PA 18431
John H Sanders	officer: Senior Vice President	P O BOX 269, 717 MAIN ST, HONESDALE PA 18431
Susan Campfield	director	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431
Meg L Hungerford	director	717 MAIN STREET, HONESDALE PA 18431