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Nexien BioPharma (Nexien BioPharma) Predictability Rank


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What is Nexien BioPharma Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nexien BioPharma Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Nexien BioPharma Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nexien BioPharma (Nexien BioPharma) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Nexien BioPharma Inc (OTCPK:NXEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CANB SXTC BSPK ACORQ KAYS CSTF LSDI GPFT CSUI GCAN XTER:MRK ZTS NSE:SUNPHARMA TSE:4502 LSE:HLN XTAE:TEVA XSWX:SDZ NBIX SZSE:000538 NSE:DIVISLAB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4340 East Kentucky Avenue, Suite 206, Glendale, CO, USA, 80246
Website
https://www.nexienbiopharma.com
Nexien BioPharma Inc is a researcher and developer of cannabinoid-based pharmaceutical for various medical conditions and disorders, all under U.S. Food and Drug Administration development pathways.
Executives
Jeffrey Friedland other: Former 10% Owner 4340 E KENTUCKY AVE, SUITE 206, GLENDALE CO 80246
Kanativa Usa Inc. 10 percent owner 4340 E KENTUCKY AVE, SUITE 206, GLENDALE CO 80246
Kanativa Inc. 10 percent owner 4340 E. KENTUCKY AVE., SUITE 206, GLENDALE CO 80246
Joseph F Aceto officer: VP Legal & IP Counsel 1617 NEWARK ROAD, KENNETT SQUARE PA 19348
Jeremy Robert Reeh officer: VP Translational Research 11 TANKARD LANE, WASHINGTON CROSSING PA 18977
Alexander Michael Wasyl director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 31 BEIDLER DRIVE, WASHINGTON CROSSING PA 18977
Frank J Manganella officer: VP Corporate Development 148-26 10TH AVENUE, WHITESTONE NY 11357
Clark Courtney Lynne director PO BOX 7801, ASPEN CO 81612
Lindy Snider director 408 BARBARA LANE, BRYN MAWR PA 19010
Robert I Goldfarb officer: Chief Operating Officer 230 GOLDEN BEACH DRIVE, GOLDEN BEACH FL 33160
Evan L Wasoff officer: Chief Financial Officer 101 WINGER DRIVE, NEDERLAND CO 80466
Alain D Bankier director 150 COLUMBUS AVENUE APT 17F, NEW YORK NY 10023
Richard S Greenberg director, 10 percent owner 4340 E KENTUCKY AVE, SUITE 206, GLENDALE CO 80246
Ivo Heiden director, 10 percent owner 2275 HUNTINGTON DRIVE, SUITE 851, SAN MARINO CA 91108