OraSure Technologies (OraSure Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is OraSure Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OraSure Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OraSure Technologies (OraSure Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » OraSure Technologies Inc (NAS:OSUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EP3:Germany

Address

220 East First Street, Bethlehem, PA, USA, 18015

Website

https://www.orasure.com

OraSure Technologies is a medical devices company that develops, manufactures, and distributes oral fluid diagnostic and collection devices. Its reportable segments are diagnostics and molecular solutions. The diagnostics segment produces rapid oral diagnostic tests and specimen collection devices for infectious diseases such as HIV and HCV. The molecular solutions segment specializes in kits used to collect, stabilize, and transport genetic material samples for molecular testing of both hereditary diseases and infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. The company gets most of its sales from the molecular solutions business, derived mainly from customers in the United States.

Executives

Kathleen Gallagher Weber	officer: Chief Product Officer	220 EAST FIRST STREET, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Michele Marie Miller	officer: VP, Finance and Controller	220 EAST FIRST STREET, BETHLEHEM PA 18017
Robert W. Mcmahon	director	250 CAMPUS DRIVE, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752
Kenneth J Mcgrath	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 220 E. FIRST STREET, BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Ronny B Lancaster	director	ORASURE TECHNOLOGIES INC, 220 EAST FIRST STREET, BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Mara G. Aspinall	director	7381 NORTH MOON SPIRIT LANE, TUCSON AZ 85718
Nancy J Gagliano	director	33 GRANITE WAY, GRANTHAM NH 03753
Michael Celano	director	220 EAST FIRST STREET, BETHLEHEM PA 18015
Manner Carrie Eglinton	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Scott Gleason	officer: Interim CFO/SVP IR	1809 SOUTH 2500 EAST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Eamonn P Hobbs	director	C/O DELCATH SYSTEMS, INC., 600 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10020
Anne Clem Whitaker	director	109 BRIERY BRANCH COURT, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
James A Datin	director	21 ESTATES DRIVE, DOYLESTOWN PA 18901
Lelio Marmora	director	64 RUE DE VESENEX, DIVONNE LES BAINS I0 01220
Lisa Nibauer	officer: President of Diagnostics	1 CRESENT PLACE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078