What is OceanTech Acquisitions I Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
OceanTech Acquisitions I Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
OceanTech Acquisitions I (OceanTech Acquisitions I) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
515 Madison Avenue, 8th Floor - Suite 8133, New York, NY, USA, 10022
OceanTech Acquisitions I Corp is a blank check company. It is formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses.
Executives
| Knuettel Ii Francis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
205 NEWBURY ST, SUITE 204, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701 |
| Aspire Acquistion Llc |
10 percent owner |
515 MADISON AVE., SUITE 8078, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Srinivasan Venkatesh |
director |
2 CEDAR GATE COURT, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039 |
| Siva Saravanan |
director |
334 REZZO STREET, LAS VEGAS NV 89138 |
| Donald G. Fell |
director |
17537 DARBY LANE, LUTZ FL 33558 |
| Michael L Peterson |
director |
17 CANARY COURT, DANVILLE CA 94526 |
| Owl Creek Asset Management, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Jeffrey A Altman |
10 percent owner |
640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Mitchell I Gordon |
director |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVENUE, 8TH FL - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Philippe Franchet |
director |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK X1 1002 |
| Ken Hickling |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVE, 8TH FLOOR - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Charles Baumgartner |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVE., 8TH FLOOR - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Joseph Adir |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVE., 8TH FLOOR - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Eric Blair |
director |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVE., 8TH FLOOR - SUITE 8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Oceantech Acquisitions I Sponsors Llc |
10 percent owner |
C/O OCEANTECH ACQUISITIONS I CORP, 515 MADISON AVE, 8TH FLOOR - SUITE8133, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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