Bank OZK (Bank OZK) Predictability Rank

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What is Bank OZK Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bank OZK Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bank OZK (Bank OZK) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bank OZK (NAS:OZK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OZKAP.PFD:USA BO8:Germany BO8:Germany

Address

18000 Cantrell Road, Little Rock, AR, USA, 72223

Website

https://www.ozk.com

Bank OZK is a bank holding company that owns and operates a community bank, Bank of the Ozarks. The bank operates offices primarily in the southeastern United States, as well as Texas, New York, and California. The bank holding company also owns a number of finance subsidiary business trusts formed in connection with the issuance of debt and preferred securities. Bank of the Ozarks provides a wide range of retail and commercial banking services, but principally concentrates its activities on real estate loans, which account for the great majority of the bank's loans and leases. The bank's real estate lending arm, which finances many metropolitan construction and development projects, extends further than many of its community banking competitors.

Executives

Kathleen M Franklin	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Bradly Rebel	officer: Chief Audit Executive	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Dennis R James	officer: EVP/Director of M & A	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Mullen Walter J Iii	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Paula H Cholmondeley	director	221 W PHILADELPHIA ST, SUITE 60W, YORK PA 17401-2991
Timothy D Hicks	officer: EVP Corporate Finance	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72227
John Crawford Carter	officer: Director Community Bank Lend	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Edward J Wydock	officer: Chief Risk Officer	SUSQUEHANNA BANCSHARES, INC., 26 N CEDAR ST, LITITZ PA 17543
William A Koefoed	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Jennifer R Junker	officer: Dir of Trust and Wealth Mgmt	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Matthew Reddin	officer: Dir of Comm Bank Lending	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Ross M Whipple	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Catherine B Freedberg	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Peter C Kenny	director	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223
Dan Thomas	officer: Chief Lending Officer	17901 CHENAL PARKWAY, LITTLE ROCK AR 72223