Pharma-Bio Serv (Pharma-Bio Serv) Predictability Rank

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What is Pharma-Bio Serv Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pharma-Bio Serv Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pharma-Bio Serv (Pharma-Bio Serv) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Pharma-Bio Serv Inc (OTCPK:PBSV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 6 Road 696, Pharma-Bio Serv Building, Dorado, PRI, 00646

Website

https://www.pharmabioserv.com

Pharma-Bio Serv Inc is a compliance and technology transfer services consulting firm. It also provides microbiological testing services and chemical testing services through its laboratory testing facility in Puerto Rico. It has three reportable segments: Puerto Rico technical compliance consulting which is the key revenue driver; United States technical compliance consulting; and Europe technical compliance consulting. The company offers solutions to the pharmaceutical, chemical, biotechnology, medical devices, cosmetic and food industries, and allied products companies.

Executives

Elizabeth Plaza	10 percent owner	363 DORADO BEACH EAST, DORADO PR 00646
Altura Victor Sanchez	officer: President and CEO	C/O PHARMA-BIO SERV, INC., 6 ROAD 696, DORADO PR 00646
San Juan Holdings	10 percent owner	255 PONCE DE LEON, SUITE 305 MCS PLAZA, SAN JUAN PR 00917
Pedro J Lasanta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	373 MENDEZ VIGO, STE 110, DORADO PR 00646
Dov Perlysky	director	2 LAKESIDE DRIVE WEST, LAWRENCE NY 11559
L P Venturetek	10 percent owner	C/O DAVID SELENGUT ELLENOFF GROSSMAN, 370 LEXINGTON AVENUE 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Barron Partners Lp	10 percent owner	730 FIFTH AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Manuel O Morera	officer: Chief Financial Officer	373 MENDEZ VIGO, SUITE 110, DORADO PR 00646
Mark A Fazio	officer: Exec. Vice President and COO	P O BOX 1026 GREEN STREET, PERKASIE PA 18944
Kirk Wheeler Michel	director	209 EAST TRYON STREET, HILLSBOROUGH NC 27278
Irving L Wiesen	director	1273 NORTH AVENUE, APT 1E 7, NEW ROCHELLE NY 10804
Howard Spindel	director	39 BROADWAY SUITE 3300, NEW YORK NY 10028
Nelida Plaza Rodriguez	officer: Vice President and Secretary	G11 CALLE MADRE PERLA URB, DORADO DEL MAR, DORADO PR 00646
Krovim Llc	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Manager	P.O. BOX 339, LAWRENCE NY 11559