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Pendrell (Pendrell) Predictability Rank


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What is Pendrell Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pendrell Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pendrell Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pendrell (Pendrell) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Pendrell Corp (OTCPK:PCOA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSE:4771 LSE:BEG ASX:MAD ACTG TSE:7987 WBO:OESD CVEO TSE:2498 SZSE:002711 TPE:8481 LSE:INSE TSE:4653 TSX:HNL TSE:3963 OSTO:GREEN MIL:B TSE:1448 TSE:7049 TSE:9368 HKSE:01328
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2300 Carillon Point, Kirkland, WA, USA, 98033
Website
https://www.pendrell.com
Pendrell Corp is engaged in licensing and selling its Intellectual Property (IP) rights. The company's subsidiaries hold patents that support three IP licensing programs digital media, digital cinema, and memory and storage technologies.
Executives
Lee E Mikles director, officer: President and CEO 2333 SAN RAMON VALLEY BLVD, STE 450, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Craig Mccaw director, 10 percent owner EAGLE RIVER INC, 2300 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Steve Ednie officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer 4400 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
James D Dondero 10 percent owner 300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201
Richard P Emerson director ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399
H Brian Thompson director 1950 OLD GALLOWS ROAD SUITE 201, VIENNA VA 22182
Stuart M Sloan director 1301 FIFTH AVE., SUITE 3000, SEATTLE WA 98101
R. Gerard Salemme director 815 CONNECTICUT AVE., SUITE 610, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Benjamin G Wolff director, officer: President and CEO 2300 CARILLON POINT, KIRKLAND WA 98033
Richard P Fox director
Highland Capital Management Lp 10 percent owner 100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1850, DALLAS TX 75201
Strand Advisors, Inc. 10 percent owner 13455 NOEL ROAD, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75240
David H Wasserman other: Former Director
Sam Ginn director
Highland Multi-strategy Fund Gp, L.p. 10 percent owner 13455 NOEL ROAD, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75240

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