What is Processa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Processa Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Processa Pharmaceuticals (Processa Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
7380 Coca Cola Drive, Suite 106, Hanover, MD, USA, 21076
Processa Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company based in the United States. It focuses on the development of drug products that are intended to improve the survival and quality of life for patients who have an unmet medical need. The company's lead product, PCS499 is an oral tablet that is an analog of an active metabolite of an already approved drug. It focuses on fibrotic related diseases such as focal segmental glomerulosclerosis, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Its pipeline products comprise PCS6422, PCS12852, and PCS100.
Executives
| Wendy Guy |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
7380 COCA COLA DRIVE, SUITE 106, HANOVER MD 21076 |
| James H Stanker |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
9008 SHADYBROOK DRIVE, FREDERICK MD 21701 |
| Patrick Lin |
officer: Chief Business - Strategy Off |
7380 COCA COLA DRIVE, SUITE 106, HANOVER MD 21076 |
| George K Ng |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O SORRENTO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6042 CORNERSTONE COURT WEST, SUITE B, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Khoso Baluch |
director |
1430 US HIGHWAY 206, SUITE 200, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921 |
| James R Neal |
director |
2910 SEVENTH STREET, BERKELEY CA 94710 |
| Virgil Thompson |
director |
319 SOUTH NARDO, SOIANA BEACH CA 92075 |
| Justin W Yorke |
director |
C/O JMG EXPLORATION, 180 SOUTH LAKE AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101 |
| Geraldine Pannu |
director |
7380 COCA COLA DRIVE, SUITE 106, HANOVER MD 21076 |
| David Young |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO |
8850 STANFORD BOULEVARD, SUITE 2500, COLUMBIA MD 21045 |
| Robert Michael Floyd |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O PROCESSA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 7300 COCA COLA DRIVE, SUITE 106, HANOVER MD 21076 |
| James E Besser |
10 percent owner |
3 WEST HILL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02114 |
| Khalid Islam |
director |
C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., 300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950 |
| Sian Bigora |
officer: Chief Development Officer |
7380 COCA COLA DRIVE, SUITE 106, HANOVER MD 21076 |
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